What the UK pipeline shutdown means for oil prices

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a crack in the main North Sea pipeline system in the UK posed a threat to short-term production, prompting the price of oil to surpass $65 a barrel for the first time in more than two years.

The international benchmark for crude oil, Brent crude, reached $65.70 a barrel before falling back to $65.33.

The network, which transports a third of the Brazil Crude Oil Refinery Market, has also been disrupted by the closure.
Due to the increased demand for fuel caused by the cold weather, gas prices in the UK were already trading close to four-year highs on Monday, up almost 30%.

Six weeks ago, billionaire Jim Ratcliffe's Ineos purchased the Forties Pipeline System (FPS), which supplies almost 40% of the UK's North Sea oil and gas production.

According to Ineos spokesperson Richard Longden, more than 80 British oil and gas fields will have to stop producing during a shutdown that will last several weeks.

Longden added that Ineos' Grangemouth refinery will continue to operate despite relying on FPS for approximately half of its crude supplies. This refinery supplies the majority of gasoline and diesel in Scotland and parts of the north-east of England.
Due to the Forties pipeline's need for repairs, there is no security of supply issue for gas or fuel supplies. The government will keep in touch with people in the industry to keep an eye on the situation and make sure that repairs are done as soon as possible.

An analyst at Petromatrix GmbH named Olivier Jakob stated:

Because it is more significant as a price maker, the FPS shutdown is more than just a supply disruption. The volume of oil that is lost is one thing, but it is also a crucial price benchmark.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Fiona Legate agreed that the FPS shutdown would have an impact on prices, supply, and cash flows:

Even a brief suspension of the Forties Pipeline System will have significant repercussions for the UK oil and gas industry. During the shutdown, businesses with fields that use the FPS export route will experience lower cash flows.

Oil and gas prices, according to Wood Mackenzie, are expected to remain high for some time.

According to London Capital Group (LCG) market analyst Jasper Lawler, high prices appear to be set to continue into the coming year.

Oil prices continued their upward trend thanks to a disruption in supply in the United Kingdom. Brent is on its way to challenging the 2015 high close to $68 per barrel, and we believe that any pullback following this most recent surge will be limited.

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According to JBC Energy analysts:

We anticipate that a substantial deferral list for the Forties loading program will extend into January at this point.

After spending more than $1 billion in November to acquire the Danish renewable energy group rsted's oil and gas business, Ineos became one of the top ten North Sea producers.

As part of an effort to raise oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec producers led by Russia agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2018.


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